York United 1-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
York United and FC Edmonton meet at IG Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 1W 2D 0L at IG Field — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — York United are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Edmonton have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, FC Edmonton have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.86 vs 1.14 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — York United have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, FC Edmonton in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 57% versus FC Edmonton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 71% | FC Edmonton 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.26 xG and FC Edmonton 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.039 / defence 1.130 | FC Edmonton attack 0.752 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 0.910. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 York United games / 7 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 48% | Draw 29% | FC Edmonton 23%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | FC Edmonton 4.35. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 39% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: York United 67% | FC Edmonton 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 48% | Draw 29% | FC Edmonton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG York United 1.26 / FC Edmonton 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.039 / def 1.130 | FC Edmonton attack 0.752 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.948 / away 0.910 • Poisson stance: York United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.77
FC Edmonton xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs FC Edmonton kick off?
York United vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in York United vs FC Edmonton?
York United 1 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is York United vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is York United vs FC Edmonton part of?
York United vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives York United a 48% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both York United and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and FC Edmonton?
Record (1 meetings): York United 0W | Draws 1 | FC Edmonton 0W.
What form are York United and FC Edmonton in?
York United (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (1.04) and FC Edmonton's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.75x) against York United's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.42
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
York United xG
Total xG
2.04
0.77
FC Edmonton xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are York United and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for York United and 0.77 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United's recent record stands at 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Edmonton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for York United against 1.14 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, York United have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — York United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Edmonton's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Edmonton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 0.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Early Season
FC Edmonton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
York United have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or FC Edmonton away?
York United's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
York United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Edmonton won 3-0 on 1 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
York United
3
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, York United have won 3, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when York United 3-1 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between York United and FC Edmonton?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for York United, 67% for FC Edmonton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (York United) and 33% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; York United have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Edmonton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of York United's games and 67% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of York United's recent games and 33% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out FC Edmonton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat FC Edmonton 1-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.26 xG and FC Edmonton 0.77 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against FC Edmonton attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 48% | Draw 29% | FC Edmonton 23%, with York United to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 71%, FC Edmonton 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 0.86 PPG, FC Edmonton 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.