York United 0-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to IG Field to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Thursday 15 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cavalry FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for York United against 1.40 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 80% and Cavalry FC 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 80% | Cavalry FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.36 xG and Cavalry FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.208 / defence 1.301 | Cavalry FC attack 1.233 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 0.961. Cavalry FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 York United games / 5 Cavalry FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 34% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 42%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Cavalry FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 80% | Cavalry FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 34% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG York United 1.36 / Cavalry FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.208 / def 1.301 | Cavalry FC attack 1.233 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.964 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Cavalry FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 15 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 0 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 34% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in?
York United (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 1.21x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.23x) against York United's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
34%
2.97
25%
4.06
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
York United xG
Total xG
2.91
1.54
Cavalry FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for York United and 1.54 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cavalry FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for York United against 1.40 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Early Season
Cavalry FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
York United
1
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 80%, Cavalry FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for York United and 40% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of York United's games and 40% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of York United's matches and 40% of Cavalry FC's.
Do York United and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.36 xG and Cavalry FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.21 / defence 1.30 against Cavalry FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 34% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 42%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 80%, Cavalry FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.00 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.