Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Willoughby Community Park Stadium to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cavalry FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Vancouver FC, 2.10 for Cavalry FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Cavalry FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Cavalry FC winning.
It is worth noting that Cavalry FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 63% versus Cavalry FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 54% | Cavalry FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.80 xG and Cavalry FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.987 / defence 1.032 | Cavalry FC attack 1.004 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 3.85. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vancouver FC 60% | Cavalry FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Vancouver FC 1.80 / Cavalry FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.987 / def 1.032 | Cavalry FC attack 1.004 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Vancouver FC 1 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 47% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (9 meetings): Vancouver FC 0W | Draws 5 | Cavalry FC 4W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vancouver FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.00x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.78
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.31
Cavalry FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
4%
22.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.31 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 9W 11D 21L from 41 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 9L across 41 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 5D 11L from 21 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.83 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 0.95 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 57%, Cavalry FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Vancouver FC) and 57% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 33%; Vancouver FC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 52% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Vancouver FC edge out Cavalry FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.80 xG and Cavalry FC 1.31 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Cavalry FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 47% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 26%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 54%, Cavalry FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.