Valour 3-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Forge at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Valour welcome Forge to IG Field. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valour — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valour have posted 3W 3D 4L at IG Field — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 6W 0D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Forge's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Valour's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Valour's 30% rate and Forge's 11% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Forge in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valour 40% | Forge 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 45% | Forge 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.70 xG and Forge 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.831 / defence 1.115 | Forge attack 0.878 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.134. Data: 22 Valour games / 20 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 22% | Draw 34% | Forge 44%. Fair-value odds: Valour 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Forge 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Valour's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Valour 30% | Forge 11% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 11 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 22% | Draw 34% | Forge 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Valour 0.70 / Forge 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.831 / def 1.115 | Forge attack 0.878 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Forge (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Forge xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Forge kick off?
Valour vs Forge kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 11 October 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Forge?
Valour 3 - 1 Forge.
Where is Valour vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Forge part of?
Valour vs Forge is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 22% chance of winning, Forge a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Valour and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Forge in?
Valour (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.83) and Forge's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
22%
4.58
34%
2.91
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Valour xG
Total xG
1.81
1.11
Forge xG
4.58
22%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 18.1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Valour and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Valour and 1.11 for Forge, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valour come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 4D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (12W 1D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Valour's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 2.00 points per game from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.35 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge in 25%.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Forge in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Forge in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Forge have gone 12W 1D 7L in their last 20 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.00 PPG; Forge away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Valour or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Forge in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 12 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jun 2025, when Forge won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Forge have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2025, when Valour 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valour 33% BTTS, Forge 11%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Valour and 22% for Forge.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Forge in 56%; Valour have failed to score in 44% of games; Forge in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Valour's recent matches and 11% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Valour's recent games and 22% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Forge tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Forge in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Forge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Forge 3-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.70 xG and Forge 1.11 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Forge attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 22/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 22% | Draw 34% | Forge 44%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 45%, Forge 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Forge's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.