Valour 1-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Valour against 0.70 for FC Edmonton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Valour 1W, FC Edmonton 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with FC Edmonton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 35% versus FC Edmonton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 45% | FC Edmonton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.23 xG and FC Edmonton 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.900 / defence 1.209 | FC Edmonton attack 0.828 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.115. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Valour's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Valour games / 20 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 33%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | FC Edmonton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valour 20% | FC Edmonton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Valour 1.23 / FC Edmonton 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.900 / def 1.209 | FC Edmonton attack 0.828 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Valour (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Edmonton xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Valour vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Valour 1 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Valour vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs FC Edmonton part of?
Valour vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 39% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valour and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
Record (4 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 1 | FC Edmonton 2W.
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in?
Valour (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valour's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.83x) against Valour's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.57
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Valour xG
Total xG
2.34
1.12
FC Edmonton xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Valour and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Valour and 1.12 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Valour have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 7W 2D 11L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton's form line: 4W 6D 10L from 20 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Valour against 0.90 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.05 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 7W 2D 11L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or FC Edmonton away?
Valour's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Valour or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
6
Draws
3
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, FC Edmonton have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Valour and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and FC Edmonton?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Valour) and 50% (FC Edmonton) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valour) and 60% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valour have failed to score in 30% of games; FC Edmonton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valour's recent games and 60% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IG Field, Regular Season - 9, as Valour and FC Edmonton drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.23 xG and FC Edmonton 1.12 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against FC Edmonton attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 39% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 33%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 45%, FC Edmonton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.15 PPG, FC Edmonton 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.