Pacific FC 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, York United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, York United 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 68% and York United 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 68% | York United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.36 xG and York United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.487 / defence 1.233 | York United attack 0.967 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.151. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.487 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Pacific FC games / 25 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 58% | Draw 23% | York United 20%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | York United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 90% | York United 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 58% | Draw 23% | York United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Pacific FC 2.36 / York United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.487 / def 1.233 | York United attack 0.967 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
York United xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 58% chance of winning, York United a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. York United (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 1.49x the league average against York United's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.44
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.74
1.37
York United xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
2%
54.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.37 for York United, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 6L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.68 PPG, York United on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 8W 2D 2L from 12 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Pacific FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
York United's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.24 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; York United in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while York United have gone 7W 12D 6L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.17 PPG; York United away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 83%, York United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Pacific FC and 58% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Pacific FC's games and 67% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Pacific FC's matches and 58% of York United's.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, York United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.36 xG and York United 1.37 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.49 / defence 1.23 against York United attack 0.97 / defence 1.36, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 58% | Draw 23% | York United 20%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 68%, York United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.68 PPG, York United 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.