Pacific FC 3-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees York United travel to IG Field to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 July 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: W D L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Pacific FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacific FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.75 vs 1.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
York United in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 25% and York United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 50% | York United 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.41 xG and York United 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.079 / defence 1.048 | York United attack 0.851 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.061. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Pacific FC games / 4 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 48% | Draw 27% | York United 25%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | York United 4.00. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Pacific FC 25% | York United 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 48% | Draw 27% | York United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Pacific FC 1.41 / York United 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.079 / def 1.048 | York United attack 0.851 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
York United xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 3 - 0 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 48% chance of winning, York United a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-L-W. York United (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against York United's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.71
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.36
0.94
York United xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.94 for York United, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pacific FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; York United in 100%.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Early Season
York United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while York United have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Pacific FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, York United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 25%, York United 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pacific FC and 75% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Pacific FC's games and 100% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pacific FC's matches and 75% of York United's.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, York United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 3-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.41 xG and York United 0.94 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against York United attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 48% | Draw 27% | York United 25%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 50%, York United 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Pacific FC scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. York United managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.