Pacific FC 2-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Valour at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 August 2021 at 02:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 5W 2D 2L from 9 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.89 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Starlight Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.89 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Valour — All Games: 6W 0D 3L from 9 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 9 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.89 PPG, Valour 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Valour in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Pacific FC 33% | Valour 22%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 56% | Valour 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.91 xG and Valour 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.514 / defence 1.111 | Valour attack 0.884 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 0.869. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.514 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Pacific FC games / 9 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 62% | Draw 22% | Valour 16%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Valour 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 40% | Valour 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Aug 2021, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 62% | Draw 22% | Valour 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Pacific FC 1.91 / Valour 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.514 / def 1.111 | Valour attack 0.884 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.982 / away 0.869 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Valour xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Valour kick off?
Pacific FC vs Valour kicked off at 02:30 on Thursday 5 August 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Pacific FC 2 - 1 Valour.
Where is Pacific FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Valour part of?
Pacific FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 62% chance of winning, Valour a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pacific FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Valour (all comps): 6W-0D-3L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Valour's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Valour's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.62
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.76
0.85
Valour xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
41.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.85 for Valour, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 6W 0D 3L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.89 PPG, Valour on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Pacific FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.44 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Valour in 22%.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Valour in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Valour have gone 6W 0D 3L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Valour away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Valour away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Valour in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Valour runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Valour specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Valour?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 40%, Valour 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pacific FC) and 40% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Valour in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 40% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pacific FC's recent games and 40% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Valour tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valour in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Valour 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 2-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.91 xG and Valour 0.85 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.51 / defence 1.11 against Valour attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 62% | Draw 22% | Valour 16%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 56%, Valour 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.89 PPG, Valour 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.