Pacific FC 0-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pacific FC take on Forge.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 1 May 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Forge (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Forge away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Forge are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 55% versus Forge 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 55% | Forge 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 0.96 xG and Forge 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.014 / defence 0.850 | Forge attack 1.016 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.190. Data: 30 Pacific FC games / 30 Forge games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 29% | Draw 39% | Forge 32%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Forge 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | Forge 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 29% | Draw 39% | Forge 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Pacific FC 0.96 / Forge 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.014 / def 0.850 | Forge attack 1.016 / def 0.992 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Forge xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 0 - 1 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 29% chance of winning, Forge a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.01) and Forge's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.02x) against Pacific FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.47
39%
2.56
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
1.99
1.03
Forge xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.03 for Forge, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (33W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.78 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 16W 7D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.72 points per game from 29 outings (15W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.57 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Forge have gone 33W 8D 19L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Forge away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Forge in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 69%, Forge 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Pacific FC) and 41% (Forge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge in 41%; Forge in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 38% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Pacific FC's matches and 41% of Forge's.
Do Pacific FC and Forge tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Forge in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Pacific FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 0.96 xG and Forge 1.03 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Forge attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 29% | Draw 39% | Forge 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 55%, Forge 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.63 PPG, Forge 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.