Pacific FC 2-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 11 April 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Forge (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Forge away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Pacific FC, 1.60 for Forge — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 63% versus Forge 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 63% | Forge 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.40 xG and Forge 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.158 / defence 1.052 | Forge attack 1.035 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.030. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 28 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 43% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 90% | Forge 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 43% | Draw 27% | Forge 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Pacific FC 1.40 / Forge 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.158 / def 1.052 | Forge attack 1.035 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Forge xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 2 - 1 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 43% chance of winning, Forge a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.16) and Forge's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.03x) against Pacific FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.77
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.12
Forge xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.12 for Forge, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 6D 9L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (17W 2D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.77 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 9W 2D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.40 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 15W 6D 9L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Forge have gone 17W 2D 11L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Forge away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Forge in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 79%, Forge 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Pacific FC) and 36% (Forge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge in 43%; Forge in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 79% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 29% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Pacific FC's matches and 36% of Forge's.
Do Pacific FC and Forge tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Forge in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Forge 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Forge 2-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.40 xG and Forge 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Forge attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 43% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 63%, Forge 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.70 PPG, Forge 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.