Pacific FC 1-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to IG Field to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.83 PPG across 6 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Pacific FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Forge (all games): 3W 0D 3L across 6 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Forge away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.83 for Pacific FC, 1.50 for Forge — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Pacific FC have seen both teams score in just 17% of their games, Forge in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Pacific FC 17% | Forge 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacific FC 50% | Forge 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.30 xG and Forge 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.312 / defence 0.953 | Forge attack 0.801 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 0.854 / away 0.860. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Pacific FC games / 6 Forge games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 52% | Draw 29% | Forge 19%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Forge 5.26. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Forge's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 17% | Forge 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (6 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 52% | Draw 29% | Forge 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 35% | xG Pacific FC 1.30 / Forge 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.312 / def 0.953 | Forge attack 0.801 / def 1.164 | league avg home 0.854 / away 0.860 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Forge xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 03:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 52% chance of winning, Forge a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Forge (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.31) and Forge's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (0.80x) against Pacific FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
The sample (6/6 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.45
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
1.96
0.66
Forge xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.66 for Forge, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Pacific FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.50 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Forge in 0%.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Forge in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Early Season
Forge
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Forge have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Forge in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Forge see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Pacific FC) and 0% (Forge) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Pacific FC and 17% for Forge.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Forge in 50%; Pacific FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Forge in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 0% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pacific FC's recent games and 17% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 1-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.30 xG and Forge 0.66 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Forge outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.95 against Forge attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/6 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 52% | Draw 29% | Forge 19%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Forge win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 50%, Forge 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 8%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Forge's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.83 PPG, Forge 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.