Pacific FC 2-2 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Pacific FC welcome FC Edmonton to Starlight Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 5W 0D 1L from 6 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Starlight Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 40% versus FC Edmonton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 60% | FC Edmonton 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.05 xG and FC Edmonton 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.501 / defence 1.090 | FC Edmonton attack 0.682 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 0.934. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Pacific FC games / 10 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 69% | Draw 19% | FC Edmonton 11%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | FC Edmonton 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | FC Edmonton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 69% | Draw 19% | FC Edmonton 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Pacific FC 2.05 / FC Edmonton 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.501 / def 1.090 | FC Edmonton attack 0.682 / def 1.380 | league avg home 0.990 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
FC Edmonton xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC 2 - 2 FC Edmonton.
Where is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 69% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pacific FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. FC Edmonton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.16
11%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.75
0.69
FC Edmonton xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
8.70
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
1%
67.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.69 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 2D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Edmonton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.40 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pacific FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
3
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 60%, FC Edmonton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Pacific FC and 40% for FC Edmonton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Edmonton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pacific FC's games and 60% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Pacific FC's matches and 40% of FC Edmonton's.
Do Pacific FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Pacific FC and FC Edmonton drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.05 xG and FC Edmonton 0.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Edmonton outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.50 / defence 1.09 against FC Edmonton attack 0.68 / defence 1.38, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 69% | Draw 19% | FC Edmonton 11%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 60%, FC Edmonton 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.