Pacific FC 3-3 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 July 2022 at 02:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cavalry FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 60% versus Cavalry FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 62% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.45 xG and Cavalry FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.139 / defence 1.079 | Cavalry FC attack 1.236 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.288. Cavalry FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Pacific FC games / 39 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 33% | Draw 23% | Cavalry FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Cavalry FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 80% | Cavalry FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jul 2022, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 33% | Draw 23% | Cavalry FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Pacific FC 1.45 / Cavalry FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.139 / def 1.079 | Cavalry FC attack 1.236 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 02:30 on Friday 1 July 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 3 - 3 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 33% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.14) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
33%
3.06
23%
4.29
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.72
Cavalry FC xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.72 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 19W 9D 12L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 21W 10D 9L from 40 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.65 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 10W 5D 5L from 20 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cavalry FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 21W 10D 9L in their last 40 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 80%, Cavalry FC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Pacific FC and 50% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pacific FC's games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Pacific FC's matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Pacific FC and Cavalry FC drew 3-3 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.45 xG and Cavalry FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Cavalry FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 33% | Draw 23% | Cavalry FC 44%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 62%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.65 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.