Pacific FC 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 2W 0D 6L from 8 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pacific FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 56% versus Atlético Ottawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 61% | Atlético Ottawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.53 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.529 / defence 1.272 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.691 / defence 1.630. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.066. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.529 — their λ of 2.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atlético Ottawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.630 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Pacific FC games / 18 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 72% | Draw 16% | Atlético Ottawa 12%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Atlético Ottawa 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 70% | Atlético Ottawa 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 72% | Draw 16% | Atlético Ottawa 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 56% | xG Pacific FC 2.53 / Atlético Ottawa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.529 / def 1.272 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.691 / def 1.630 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Atlético Ottawa xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 72% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.53) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 2.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
72%
1.39
16%
6.13
12%
8.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.47
0.94
Atlético Ottawa xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.13
16%
Draw
8.48
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
8%
12.57
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
1%
106.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.94 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 18 games, going 10W 5D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 0.72 PPG from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (2W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
2
Draws
7
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 88%, Atlético Ottawa 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Pacific FC and 38% for Atlético Ottawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Pacific FC's games and 25% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Pacific FC's matches and 38% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 1-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.53 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.94 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.53 / defence 1.27 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.69 / defence 1.63, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 72% | Draw 16% | Atlético Ottawa 12%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 61%, Atlético Ottawa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.