HFX Wanderers FC 2-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Edmonton at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to HFX Wanderers FC versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 10 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. HFX Wanderers FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Edmonton have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, FC Edmonton are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (HFX Wanderers FC 0% | FC Edmonton 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (HFX Wanderers FC 0% | FC Edmonton 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.04 xG and FC Edmonton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.949 / defence 1.150 | FC Edmonton attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 1.064. Data: 3 HFX Wanderers FC games / 3 FC Edmonton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 30% | FC Edmonton 35%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | FC Edmonton 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 0% | FC Edmonton 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 30% | FC Edmonton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.04 / FC Edmonton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.949 / def 1.150 | FC Edmonton attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.953 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Edmonton xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC 2 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 35% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D. FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.85x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.32
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.08
1.04
FC Edmonton xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.04 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D. It's still early in the season for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Edmonton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Edmonton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Early Season
FC Edmonton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have HFX Wanderers FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Edmonton tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 33% (FC Edmonton) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for HFX Wanderers FC and 0% for FC Edmonton.
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Edmonton in 33%; HFX Wanderers FC have failed to score in 100% of games; FC Edmonton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 33% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 0% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as HFX Wanderers FC defy the odds to beat FC Edmonton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat FC Edmonton 2-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.04 xG and FC Edmonton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against FC Edmonton attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 35% | Draw 30% | FC Edmonton 35%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 0%, FC Edmonton 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Edmonton arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with HFX Wanderers FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. HFX Wanderers FC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.