HFX Wanderers FC 3-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as HFX Wanderers FC take on Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Wanderers Grounds to face HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 June 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
HFX Wanderers FC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Wanderers Grounds this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.40 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
HFX Wanderers FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 41% versus Cavalry FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 43% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.13 xG and Cavalry FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.943 / defence 1.024 | Cavalry FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.279. Data: 37 HFX Wanderers FC games / 37 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 33% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 31%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Cavalry FC 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 30% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jun 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 33% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.13 / Cavalry FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.943 / def 1.024 | Cavalry FC attack 0.838 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cavalry FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 June 2023 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 3 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 33% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.84x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
37%
2.73
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.23
1.10
Cavalry FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.10 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, HFX Wanderers FC have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 16D 24L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against HFX Wanderers FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 11W 8D 9L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have HFX Wanderers FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
HFX Wanderers FC
4
Draws
5
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 43%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 32%; HFX Wanderers FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Cavalry FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Cavalry FC 3-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.13 xG and Cavalry FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Cavalry FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 33% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual HFX Wanderers FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 43%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with HFX Wanderers FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.