HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to IG Field to face HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. HFX Wanderers FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cavalry FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.33 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
HFX Wanderers FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (HFX Wanderers FC 20% | Cavalry FC 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (HFX Wanderers FC 20% | Cavalry FC 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 0.81 xG and Cavalry FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.927 / defence 1.075 | Cavalry FC attack 1.093 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.850 / away 0.814. Data: 5 HFX Wanderers FC games / 6 Cavalry FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 29% | Draw 33% | Cavalry FC 37%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Cavalry FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — HFX Wanderers FC's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 20% | Cavalry FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 29% | Draw 33% | Cavalry FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 0.81 / Cavalry FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.927 / def 1.075 | Cavalry FC attack 1.093 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.850 / away 0.814 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cavalry FC xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 29% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.09x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (5/6 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.02
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.96
Cavalry FC xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 0.96 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, HFX Wanderers FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cavalry FC's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cavalry FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.00 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Cavalry FC in 20%.
Defensively: HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Cavalry FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Early Season
Cavalry FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have HFX Wanderers FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
HFX Wanderers FC
4
Draws
5
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 20% (Cavalry FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for HFX Wanderers FC and 20% for Cavalry FC.
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 40%; HFX Wanderers FC have failed to score in 80% of games; Cavalry FC in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 20% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 20% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 0.81 xG and Cavalry FC 0.96 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Cavalry FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/6 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 29% | Draw 33% | Cavalry FC 37%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 20%, Cavalry FC 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.00 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.