Forge 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 August 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 0D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 3D 4L from 9 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.67 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
York United trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Forge 22% | York United 44%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 33% | York United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.44 xG and York United 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 0.957 / defence 1.203 | York United attack 0.727 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 0.861. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Forge games / 9 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 53% | Draw 27% | York United 20%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | York United 5.00. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Forge 25% | York United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 53% | Draw 27% | York United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Forge 1.44 / York United 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 0.957 / def 1.203 | York United attack 0.727 / def 1.484 | league avg home 1.015 / away 0.861 • Poisson stance: Forge (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.75
York United xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 5 August 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 53% chance of winning, York United a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-0D-4L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. York United (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (0.96) and York United's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.71
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Forge xG
Total xG
2.20
0.75
York United xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
5%
21.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Forge and 0.75 for York United, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Forge have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 5W 0D 4L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, York United have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; York United are on 0.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 5W 0D 4L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while York United have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.50 PPG; York United away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, York United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 25%, York United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Forge and 75% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; York United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Forge's matches and 75% of York United's.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, York United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.44 xG and York United 0.75 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against York United attack 0.73 / defence 1.48, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 53% | Draw 27% | York United 20%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 33%, York United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.