Forge 3-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees FC Edmonton travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forge have posted 6W 1D 3L at Tim Hortons Field — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Forge have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Forge have won 1, FC Edmonton 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with FC Edmonton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 36% versus FC Edmonton 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 43% | FC Edmonton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.64 xG and FC Edmonton 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.086 / defence 1.132 | FC Edmonton attack 1.000 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.021. Data: 30 Forge games / 30 FC Edmonton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 49% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 27%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | FC Edmonton 3.70. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Forge 50% | FC Edmonton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 49% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Forge 1.64 / FC Edmonton 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.086 / def 1.132 | FC Edmonton attack 1.000 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Forge (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC Edmonton xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Forge vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Forge 3 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is Forge vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs FC Edmonton part of?
Forge vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 49% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Forge and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and FC Edmonton?
Record (3 meetings): Forge 1W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 2W.
What form are Forge and FC Edmonton in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.09x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.09
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Forge xG
Total xG
2.80
1.16
FC Edmonton xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Forge and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Forge and 1.16 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Forge's recent record stands at 17W 2D 9L from 28 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 12L across 28 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Forge have managed 8W 1D 5L from 14 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Edmonton's away record stands at 1W 6D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 61%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
FC Edmonton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 17W 2D 9L in their last 28 games (1.89 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or FC Edmonton away?
Forge's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Forge or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Forge
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, Forge have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and FC Edmonton?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, FC Edmonton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Forge) and 50% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Forge have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Edmonton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 64% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Forge's recent games and 50% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat FC Edmonton 3-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.64 xG and FC Edmonton 1.16 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Edmonton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against FC Edmonton attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 49% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 27%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 43%, FC Edmonton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.