FC Edmonton 1-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Edmonton at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to FC Edmonton versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 5 July 2021 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Edmonton have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Edmonton have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
York United (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in FC Edmonton's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.26 xG and York United 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.899 / defence 1.045 | York United attack 0.865 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.007. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing FC Edmonton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 FC Edmonton games / 2 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 29% | York United 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | York United 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Edmonton at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 29% | York United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Edmonton 1.26 / York United 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.899 / def 1.045 | York United attack 0.865 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.91
York United xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs York United kick off?
FC Edmonton vs York United kicked off at 03:00 on Monday 5 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs York United?
FC Edmonton 1 - 1 York United.
Where is FC Edmonton vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs York United part of?
FC Edmonton vs York United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs York United?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 44% chance of winning, York United a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs York United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Edmonton and York United will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Edmonton and York United in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W. York United (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 0.90x the league average against York United's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.86x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.47
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
York United xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.91 for York United, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Edmonton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Edmonton by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; York United in 100%.
Defensively: FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Early Season
York United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and York United in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while York United have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have FC Edmonton or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, York United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
York United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Edmonton won 3-0 on 1 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
3
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and York United?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, York United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and York United last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when York United 3-1 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 100% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 100% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and York United tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, York United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton and York United finished level at 1-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.26 xG and York United 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against York United attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 29% | York United 27%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 0%, York United 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Edmonton arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. York United conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.