FC Edmonton 3-3 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Edmonton and Valour meet at Clarke Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valour have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Edmonton, 1.20 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Valour in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Edmonton, 1 for Valour and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Valour — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 62% versus Valour 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 46% | Valour 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.59 xG and Valour 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.993 / defence 1.356 | Valour attack 0.909 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.181. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing FC Edmonton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 FC Edmonton games / 27 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 39% | Draw 29% | Valour 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Valour 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 70% | Valour 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 39% | Draw 29% | Valour 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Edmonton 1.59 / Valour 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.993 / def 1.356 | Valour attack 0.909 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Valour xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Valour kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Valour kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
FC Edmonton 3 - 3 Valour.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Valour part of?
FC Edmonton vs Valour is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 39% chance of winning, Valour a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Edmonton and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
Record (5 meetings): FC Edmonton 2W | Draws 2 | Valour 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 0.99x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.91x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.48
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
3.05
1.46
Valour xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.46 for Valour, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 5W 9D 12L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 9W 4D 13L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.19 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 1D 9L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Edmonton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Valour have gone 9W 4D 13L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Valour away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.25 PPG; Valour away: 0.58 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Valour in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Edmonton
6
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 3, Valour have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Valour?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 58%, Valour 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC Edmonton) and 58% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Valour in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Edmonton's games and 58% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 58% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Valour tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valour in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton and Valour share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton and Valour finished level at 3-3 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.59 xG and Valour 1.46 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.99 / defence 1.36 against Valour attack 0.91 / defence 1.39, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 39% | Draw 29% | Valour 33%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 46%, Valour 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 0.92 PPG, Valour 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.