FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forge (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Edmonton face Forge.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Edmonton welcome Forge to Clarke Field. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 September 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Edmonton have posted 3W 1D 6L at Clarke Field — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forge are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 4 for Forge and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2022, ended 1–5 with Forge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Forge in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 64% versus Forge 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 53% | Forge 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.14 xG and Forge 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.084 / defence 1.175 | Forge attack 1.129 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.191. Forge's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 FC Edmonton games / 52 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 27% | Draw 25% | Forge 48%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Forge 2.08. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 50% | Forge 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Sep 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 27% | Draw 25% | Forge 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Edmonton 1.14 / Forge 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.084 / def 1.175 | Forge attack 1.129 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Forge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Forge xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Forge kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Forge kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 25 September 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
FC Edmonton 1 - 1 Forge.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Forge part of?
FC Edmonton vs Forge is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 27% chance of winning, Forge a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Edmonton and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Record (6 meetings): FC Edmonton 2W | Draws 0 | Forge 4W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Forge (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (1.08) and Forge's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
27%
3.65
25%
4.00
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.72
1.58
Forge xG
3.65
27%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
17.74
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.58 for Forge, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 9W 17D 27L from 53 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 29W 6D 18L across 53 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Edmonton have managed 8W 7D 11L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 14W 3D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.60 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 9W 17D 27L in their last 53 games (0.83 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 6D 18L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.19 PPG; Forge away: 1.73 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Forge in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Forge runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, Forge have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 58%, Forge 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Edmonton) and 46% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 42%; Forge in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 35% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 46% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Forge tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Forge in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton and Forge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 11, as FC Edmonton and Forge drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.14 xG and Forge 1.58 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Forge attack 1.13 / defence 0.79, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 27% | Draw 25% | Forge 48%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 53%, Forge 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.