FC Edmonton 3-4 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Clarke Field plays host to FC Edmonton versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 October 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Form
FC Edmonton (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Clarke Field, FC Edmonton have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Atlético Ottawa have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Edmonton, 0.70 for Atlético Ottawa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Edmonton 0W, Atlético Ottawa 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 56% versus Atlético Ottawa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 44% | Atlético Ottawa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.47 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.966 / defence 1.174 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.717 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.132. Atlético Ottawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing FC Edmonton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC Edmonton games / 23 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 48% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 4.35. FC Edmonton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Edmonton are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 60% | Atlético Ottawa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Oct 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 48% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Edmonton 1.47 / Atlético Ottawa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.966 / def 1.174 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.717 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Atlético Ottawa xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 02:00 on Wednesday 13 October 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa?
FC Edmonton 3 - 4 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 48% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (2 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 1 | Atlético Ottawa 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Edmonton's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Atlético Ottawa's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (0.72x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.53
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.43
0.95
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
18.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.95 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 5W 8D 10L from 23 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atlético Ottawa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 13L across 23 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC Edmonton against 0.78 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Edmonton have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atlético Ottawa's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Edmonton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 0.96 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.36 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
2
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2022, when Atlético Ottawa 0-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 54%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FC Edmonton) and 36% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton have failed to score in 27% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 36% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat FC Edmonton 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat FC Edmonton 3-4 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.47 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.72 / defence 1.47, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 48% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 23%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Atlético Ottawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 44%, Atlético Ottawa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 1.00 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.