Cavalry FC 1-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 7W 0D 3L at ATCO Field — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cavalry FC, 1.20 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 50% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | York United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.35 xG and York United 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.048 / defence 0.845 | York United attack 0.951 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.370. Data: 49 Cavalry FC games / 49 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 27% | York United 30%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | York United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 40% | York United 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 27% | York United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Cavalry FC 1.35 / York United 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.048 / def 0.845 | York United attack 0.951 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
York United xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 43% chance of winning, York United a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. York United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.95x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.70
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
York United xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.10 for York United, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 24W 12D 14L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 14W 17D 19L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, York United have gone 7W 8D 10L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 24W 12D 14L in their last 50 games (1.68 PPG), while York United have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.76 PPG; York United away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, York United in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 48%, York United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cavalry FC) and 52% (York United).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 28% of games; York United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 56% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 52% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, York United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.35 xG and York United 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against York United attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 27% | York United 30%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, York United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.