Cavalry FC 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC meet at ATCO Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 June 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of HFX Wanderers FC's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, HFX Wanderers FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus HFX Wanderers FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | HFX Wanderers FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.29 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.107 / defence 0.849 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.787 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.201. Data: 36 Cavalry FC games / 36 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | HFX Wanderers FC 4.35. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cavalry FC 60% | HFX Wanderers FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Cavalry FC 1.29 / HFX Wanderers FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.107 / def 0.849 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.787 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
HFX Wanderers FC xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 48% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.11) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.79x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.46
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.09
0.80
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.80 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 8D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (1W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.43 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
1
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 5, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, HFX Wanderers FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cavalry FC) and 43% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 36% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play HFX Wanderers FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 50% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 43% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.29 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. HFX Wanderers FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 23%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, HFX Wanderers FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.