Cavalry FC 1-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Championship - Semi-finals sees Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Forge away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cavalry FC) versus 1.20 (Forge). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 49% versus Forge 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 51% | Forge 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.09 xG and Forge 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.055 / defence 0.937 | Forge attack 1.107 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.134. Forge's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Cavalry FC games / 56 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 34% | Draw 29% | Forge 38%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Forge 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 40% | Forge 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Championship - Semi-finals | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 34% | Draw 29% | Forge 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cavalry FC 1.09 / Forge 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.055 / def 0.937 | Forge attack 1.107 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Forge (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Forge xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 1 - 1 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Championship - Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 34% chance of winning, Forge a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.05) and Forge's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.50
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.27
1.18
Forge xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.18 for Forge, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 28W 13D 16L from 57 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 31W 7D 19L across 57 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.70 PPG, Forge on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 15W 5D 8L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 14W 4D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Forge in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 28W 13D 16L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Forge have gone 31W 7D 19L in their last 57 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Forge away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Forge in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 46%, Forge 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 43% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Forge in 39%; Forge in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 36% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 43% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Forge in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and Forge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at ATCO Field, Championship - Semi-finals, as Cavalry FC and Forge drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.09 xG and Forge 1.18 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Forge attack 1.11 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 34% | Draw 29% | Forge 38%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 51%, Forge 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.70 PPG, Forge 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.