Cavalry FC 3-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face FC Edmonton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Edmonton make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 27 June 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Edmonton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Edmonton's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over FC Edmonton (1.80 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Edmonton in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Cavalry FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cavalry FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus FC Edmonton 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | FC Edmonton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.71 xG and FC Edmonton 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.101 / defence 0.742 | FC Edmonton attack 0.831 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.284. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Cavalry FC games / 40 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 17%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | FC Edmonton 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cavalry FC 60% | FC Edmonton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Cavalry FC 1.71 / FC Edmonton 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.101 / def 0.742 | FC Edmonton attack 0.831 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC Edmonton xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC 3 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 59% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (6 meetings): Cavalry FC 4W | Draws 2 | FC Edmonton 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.83x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.23
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.50
0.79
FC Edmonton xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
3%
32.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.79 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 8D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (6W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 61%.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
FC Edmonton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.43 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
0
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, FC Edmonton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, FC Edmonton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cavalry FC) and 50% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Edmonton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cavalry FC's games and 64% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 50% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat FC Edmonton 3-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.71 xG and FC Edmonton 0.79 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.74 against FC Edmonton attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 17%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, FC Edmonton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.