Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 July 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valour have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.50 for Valour. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 54% versus Valour 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 39% | Valour 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.06 xG and Valour 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.823 / defence 0.929 | Valour attack 1.319 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.356. Valour have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Atlético Ottawa games / 41 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 24% | Draw 24% | Valour 51%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Valour 1.96. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Valour 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Jul 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 24% | Draw 24% | Valour 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.06 / Valour 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.823 / def 0.929 | Valour attack 1.319 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Valour (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Valour xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 21 July 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 24% chance of winning, Valour a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Valour (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.82x the league average against Valour's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.32x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
24%
4.12
24%
4.10
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.72
1.66
Valour xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
21.69
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.66 for Valour, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 12W 12D 17L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 15W 9D 17L from 41 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.32 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.44 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Valour have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Valour away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.19 PPG; Valour away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Valour in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 57%, Valour 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atlético Ottawa) and 62% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 67% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 62% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Valour in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Atlético Ottawa and Valour drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.06 xG and Valour 1.66 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Valour attack 1.32 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 24% | Draw 24% | Valour 51%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, Valour 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.17 PPG, Valour 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.