Atlético Ottawa 0-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Atlético Ottawa welcome Forge to TD Place Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's home record at TD Place Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at TD Place Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atlético Ottawa at 2.00 PPG versus Forge's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 51% versus Forge 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 43% | Forge 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.04 xG and Forge 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.906 / defence 1.135 | Forge attack 1.405 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.352. Forge have an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Atlético Ottawa games / 47 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 17% | Draw 20% | Forge 63%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Forge 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Forge (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Forge 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 17% | Draw 20% | Forge 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.04 / Forge 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.906 / def 1.135 | Forge attack 1.405 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Forge (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Forge xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Forge kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 0 Forge.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Forge part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 17% chance of winning, Forge a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Forge in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Forge (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (0.91) and Forge's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
17%
5.79
20%
5.03
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.20
2.16
Forge xG
5.79
17%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
12%
8.65
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
50.03
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 2.16 for Forge, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atlético Ottawa's recent record stands at 17W 13D 19L from 49 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 28W 4D 17L across 49 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atlético Ottawa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atlético Ottawa have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 14W 1D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.67 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Forge in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Forge have gone 28W 4D 17L in their last 49 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.39 PPG; Forge away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Forge in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Forge runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Forge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Forge specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
4
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, Forge have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 61%, Forge 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atlético Ottawa) and 52% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 44%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 26% of games; Forge in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 35% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 52% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Forge tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Forge in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Atlético Ottawa and Forge drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.04 xG and Forge 2.16 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Forge landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Forge attack 1.41 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 17% | Draw 20% | Forge 63%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, Forge 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.