Atlético Ottawa 2-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atlético Ottawa (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atlético Ottawa face FC Edmonton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 19:37 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at TD Place Stadium this season.
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Atlético Ottawa's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of FC Edmonton's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Atlético Ottawa, 1 for FC Edmonton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with FC Edmonton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 51% versus FC Edmonton 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 40% | FC Edmonton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.41 xG and FC Edmonton 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.737 / defence 1.053 | FC Edmonton attack 0.763 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.400. Atlético Ottawa's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Atlético Ottawa games / 46 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 43% | Draw 26% | FC Edmonton 30%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | FC Edmonton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 50% | FC Edmonton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 19:37 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 43% | Draw 26% | FC Edmonton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.41 / FC Edmonton 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.737 / def 1.053 | FC Edmonton attack 0.763 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Edmonton xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 19:37 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 43% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton?
Record (5 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 3W | Draws 1 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (0.74) and FC Edmonton's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.76x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.78
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.12
FC Edmonton xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.12 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa's recent record stands at 14W 13D 18L from 45 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 22L across 45 games — 0.87 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 0.87 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atlético Ottawa have managed 6W 8D 8L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Edmonton's away record stands at 1W 8D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.18 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 8W 15D 22L in their last 45 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or FC Edmonton away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.18 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2022, when Atlético Ottawa 0-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 54%, FC Edmonton 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atlético Ottawa) and 54% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Edmonton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 68% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 54% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out FC Edmonton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat FC Edmonton 2-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.41 xG and FC Edmonton 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.74 / defence 1.05 against FC Edmonton attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 43% | Draw 26% | FC Edmonton 30%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 40%, FC Edmonton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.22 PPG, FC Edmonton 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.