Atlético Ottawa 1-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Cavalry FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 57% versus Cavalry FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 43% | Cavalry FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.27 xG and Cavalry FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.986 / defence 1.036 | Cavalry FC attack 1.015 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.156. Data: 28 Atlético Ottawa games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 38% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Cavalry FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 38% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.27 / Cavalry FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.986 / def 1.036 | Cavalry FC attack 1.015 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.01x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.69
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.48
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.22 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 8D 14L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 13W 8D 7L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 8W 3D 3L from 14 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.00 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
3
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Cavalry FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 64%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atlético Ottawa) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 36%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Cavalry FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.27 xG and Cavalry FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 38% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 35%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.