Atlético Ottawa 3-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cavalry FC arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cavalry FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 56% versus Cavalry FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 44% | Cavalry FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 0.89 xG and Cavalry FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.885 / defence 1.475 | Cavalry FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.042. Data: 19 Atlético Ottawa games / 18 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 22% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 1.92. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Cavalry FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 22% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Atlético Ottawa 0.89 / Cavalry FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.885 / def 1.475 | Cavalry FC attack 0.983 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Cavalry FC xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 3 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 22% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.98x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
22%
4.50
26%
3.83
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.40
1.51
Cavalry FC xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
5%
20.39
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.51 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 0.61 PPG on a 2W 5D 11L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 9W 5D 4L from 18 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 5D 11L in their last 18 games (0.61 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 0.70 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
3
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Cavalry FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Atlético Ottawa, 60% for Cavalry FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atlético Ottawa) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 60% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 3-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 0.89 xG and Cavalry FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.89 / defence 1.48 against Cavalry FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 22% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 52%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Atlético Ottawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 44%, Cavalry FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (18 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (18 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.