Mirassol 2-1 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Mirassol versus Remo in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 July 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Remo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Remo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Remo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mirassol 0W, Remo 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Remo half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 65% versus Remo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 55% | Remo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.93 xG and Remo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.007 / defence 1.007 | Remo attack 0.834 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.114. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Mirassol games / 20 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 59% | Draw 25% | Remo 16%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Remo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Remo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 59% | Draw 25% | Remo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Mirassol 1.93 / Remo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.007 / def 1.007 | Remo attack 0.834 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Remo xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Remo kick off?
Mirassol vs Remo kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 29 July 2026.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Remo?
Mirassol 2 - 1 Remo.
What competition is Mirassol vs Remo part of?
Mirassol vs Remo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 59% chance of winning, Remo a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mirassol and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Remo?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Remo 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Remo in?
Mirassol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Remo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Mirassol vs Remo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.01x the league average against Remo's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.83x) against Mirassol's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 57/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.07
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.86
0.94
Remo xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
42.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.94 for Remo, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 6D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Remo sit at 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Remo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Mirassol against 1.05 for Remo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mirassol's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Remo have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Remo are on 1.15 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Remo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Remo in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Remo have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Remo away?
Mirassol's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.50 PPG; Remo away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since February 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Remo?
From 2 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Remo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Remo?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 70%, Remo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Mirassol and 60% for Remo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Remo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Remo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Mirassol's games and 40% of Remo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Remo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Mirassol's matches and 60% of Remo's.
Do Mirassol and Remo tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Remo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Remo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Remo 2-1 at , Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.93 xG and Remo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Remo attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 57/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 59% | Draw 25% | Remo 16%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 55%, Remo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Remo's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.05 PPG, Remo 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.