Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cruzeiro (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cruzeiro face Botafogo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cruzeiro host Botafogo at in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Cruzeiro have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Botafogo have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Cruzeiro have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Botafogo and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Botafogo trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 53% versus Botafogo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 53% | Botafogo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.62 xG and Botafogo 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.054 / defence 1.050 | Botafogo attack 1.138 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.127. Data: 57 Cruzeiro games / 57 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 43% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 31%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Botafogo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Cruzeiro 70% | Botafogo 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 43% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Cruzeiro 1.62 / Botafogo 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.054 / def 1.050 | Botafogo attack 1.138 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Botafogo xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Botafogo kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
Cruzeiro 0 - 1 Botafogo.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Botafogo part of?
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 43% chance of winning, Botafogo a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cruzeiro and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Botafogo?
Record (7 meetings): Cruzeiro 3W | Draws 3 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Botafogo in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.05) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.96
1.35
Botafogo xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.35 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 26W 19D 12L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo's form line: 24W 17D 16L from 57 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.70 PPG, Botafogo on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (17W 8D 4L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 9W 9D 11L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.60 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 26W 19D 12L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 24W 17D 16L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Botafogo away?
Cruzeiro's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 2.03 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Botafogo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cruzeiro and Botafogo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jan 2026, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cruzeiro
3
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Botafogo?
From 8 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 3, Botafogo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Botafogo?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 62%, Botafogo 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Cruzeiro) and 38% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Botafogo in 31%; Botafogo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 45% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 38% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Botafogo tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Cruzeiro 0-1 at , Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.62 xG and Botafogo 1.35 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cruzeiro fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 43% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 31%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 53%, Botafogo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.70 PPG, Botafogo 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.