Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (82%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host Kortrijk at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stade Joseph Marien — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Union St. Gilloise's 30% rate and Kortrijk's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 8 past contests while Kortrijk have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus Kortrijk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 45% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.54 xG and Kortrijk 0.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.316 / defence 0.669 | Kortrijk attack 0.579 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.193. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Union St. Gilloise games / 7 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 82% | Draw 13% | Kortrijk 5%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.22 | Draw 7.69 | Kortrijk 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (82%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Kortrijk's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 82% | Draw 13% | Kortrijk 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 34% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.54 / Kortrijk 0.46 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.316 / def 0.669 | Kortrijk attack 0.579 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.46
Kortrijk xG
34%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 82% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 5% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Record (8 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 8W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.32x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
82%
1.21
13%
7.86
5%
20.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.01
0.46
Kortrijk xG
1.21
82%
Home win
7.86
13%
Draw
20.75
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
63%
1.59
8%
12.72
Win to Nil
52%
1.93
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.46 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 24W 10D 4L from 38 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 4D 13L across 38 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 15W 3D 0L from 18 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.16 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.53 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 24W 10D 4L in their last 38 games (2.16 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 4D 13L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Kortrijk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.67 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 33%, Kortrijk 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Union St. Gilloise) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 44% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.