SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethiel Stadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethiel Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for SK Beveren, 2.00 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: SK Beveren 2W, Zulte Waregem 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 62% | Zulte Waregem 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.57 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.034 / defence 0.747 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.916 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.192. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 SK Beveren games / 37 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 55% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 19%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Zulte Waregem 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 20% | Zulte Waregem 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 55% | Draw 25% | Zulte Waregem 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG SK Beveren 1.57 / Zulte Waregem 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.034 / def 0.747 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.916 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Zulte Waregem xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem part of?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 55% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Record (5 meetings): SK Beveren 2W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 3W.
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.03) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.92x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.94
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.38
0.82
Zulte Waregem xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.82 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.49 PPG on a 31W 4D 4L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 15W 10D 14L from 39 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.89 PPG from 19 outings (18W 1D 0L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 7D 7L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.49 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 4D 4L in their last 39 games (2.49 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Zulte Waregem away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.89 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.16 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
From 5 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 37%, Zulte Waregem 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SK Beveren) and 53% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 58% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SK Beveren's recent games and 53% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.