RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Easi Arena to take on RAAL La Louvière. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RAAL La Louvière — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RAAL La Louvière's home record at Easi Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for RAAL La Louvière, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
RAAL La Louvière trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 49% versus Union St. Gilloise 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 51% | Union St. Gilloise 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.19 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.120 / defence 1.099 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.484 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.192. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 RAAL La Louvière games / 37 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 23% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 55%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Union St. Gilloise 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RAAL La Louvière 50% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 23% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.19 / Union St. Gilloise 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.120 / def 1.099 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.484 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Union St. Gilloise xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Easi Arena.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 23% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): RAAL La Louvière 0W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (1.12) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
23%
4.32
22%
4.55
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
3.14
1.94
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.32
23%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
30.17
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.94 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RAAL La Louvière's recent record stands at 8W 14D 21L from 43 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 4L across 43 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RAAL La Louvière heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RAAL La Louvière have managed 5W 8D 8L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 10W 7D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.74 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 11D 4L in their last 43 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.10 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.76 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
1
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise?
From 2 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RAAL La Louvière see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 38%, Union St. Gilloise 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (RAAL La Louvière) and 43% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 33%; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 48% of games; Union St. Gilloise in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 52% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 43% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.