Genk vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 41%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Genk vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Genk 3W, Charleroi 2W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 62% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 55% | Charleroi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.40 xG and Charleroi 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.215 / defence 0.932 | Charleroi attack 1.110 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.192. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Genk games / 37 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 33%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Genk 40% | Charleroi 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Genk 1.40 / Charleroi 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.215 / def 0.932 | Charleroi attack 1.110 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Genk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Cegeka Arena.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 41% chance of winning, Charleroi a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Genk 3W | Draws 5 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.11x) against Genk's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.83
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Genk xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
Charleroi xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Genk and 1.23 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Genk have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 17W 18D 12L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 20W 9D 18L from 47 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Genk against 1.47 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 11W 3D 9L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 17W 18D 12L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.57 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 56%, Charleroi 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Genk) and 39% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Genk's recent matches and 44% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Genk's recent games and 39% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.