🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates RAAL La Louvière at 39%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus RAAL La Louvière in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Charleroi haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.

RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RAAL La Louvière haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

RAAL La Louvière's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 0.80 PPG lead over RAAL La Louvière (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RAAL La Louvière in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

RAAL La Louvière goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus RAAL La Louvière 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | RAAL La Louvière 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.35 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.994 / defence 1.066 | RAAL La Louvière attack 1.011 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 30 Charleroi games / 30 RAAL La Louvière games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 39%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | RAAL La Louvière 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates RAAL La Louvière as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RAAL La Louvière if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | RAAL La Louvière 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights