KRC Genk II 1-0 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KRC Genk II at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as KRC Genk II welcome RSC Anderlecht II to De Leunen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Leunen, KRC Genk II have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at De Leunen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, RSC Anderlecht II have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RSC Anderlecht II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RSC Anderlecht II away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
KRC Genk II carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for KRC Genk II, 1 for RSC Anderlecht II and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with KRC Genk II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 72% and RSC Anderlecht II 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (KRC Genk II 69% | RSC Anderlecht II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.83 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.039 / defence 1.124 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.062 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.388. RSC Anderlecht II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing KRC Genk II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 KRC Genk II games / 36 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | RSC Anderlecht II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG KRC Genk II 1.83 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.039 / def 1.124 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.062 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.66
RSC Anderlecht II xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
KRC Genk II 1 - 0 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 41% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (4 meetings): KRC Genk II 2W | Draws 1 | RSC Anderlecht II 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against RSC Anderlecht II's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.06
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.49
1.66
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.66 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 7D 17L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 0.97 PPG from 36 outings (8W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: KRC Genk II on 1.19 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
KRC Genk II's home form reads 7W 3D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 72%.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
RSC Anderlecht II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 12W 7D 17L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.33 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when KRC Genk II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
3
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 8 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 4, RSC Anderlecht II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 2-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — KRC Genk II at 67%, RSC Anderlecht II at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for KRC Genk II and 56% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of KRC Genk II's games and 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of KRC Genk II's matches and 56% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KRC Genk II edge out RSC Anderlecht II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat RSC Anderlecht II 1-0 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.83 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.66 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II fell 0.8 short of their projected output. RSC Anderlecht II landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.04 / defence 1.12 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.06 / defence 1.29, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, RSC Anderlecht II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.19 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.