WSG Wattens 5-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 5D 1L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 71% and Wolfsberger AC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 57% | Wolfsberger AC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.27 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.010 / defence 1.232 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.022 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.354. Data: 14 WSG Wattens games / 14 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 47%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 2.13. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 86% | Wolfsberger AC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG WSG Wattens 1.27 / Wolfsberger AC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.010 / def 1.232 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.022 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Wolfsberger AC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
WSG Wattens 5 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 28% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (1.01) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
28%
3.62
26%
3.86
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.98
1.70
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
5%
19.92
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.70 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 2W 7D 5L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 4L across 14 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolfsberger AC by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.71 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.17 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 83%, Wolfsberger AC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 67% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of WSG Wattens's games and 50% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of WSG Wattens's matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant WSG Wattens run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 5-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.27 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 47%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 57%, Wolfsberger AC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.