WSG Wattens 2-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for WSG Wattens, 1.30 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 52% versus TSV Hartberg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 67% | TSV Hartberg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.67 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.987 / defence 1.056 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.982 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 0.969. Data: 23 WSG Wattens games / 23 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 53% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 23%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | TSV Hartberg 4.35. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 53% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG WSG Wattens 1.67 / TSV Hartberg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.987 / def 1.056 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.982 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.667 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 2 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 53% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.98x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.11
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.67
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
23.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.00 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 7D 15L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 8W 12D 13L from 33 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.09 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 6D 6L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.36 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 12D 13L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.44 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 56%, TSV Hartberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (WSG Wattens) and 50% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 31% of games; TSV Hartberg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of WSG Wattens's games and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of WSG Wattens's matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out TSV Hartberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat TSV Hartberg 2-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.67 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 53% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 67%, TSV Hartberg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.21 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.