WSG Wattens 2-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Ried meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for WSG Wattens, 0.90 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, WSG Wattens are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with WSG Wattens winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both WSG Wattens and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 57% and Ried 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 70% | Ried 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.09 xG and Ried 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.806 / defence 1.070 | Ried attack 0.584 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.659. Data: 37 WSG Wattens games / 37 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 33% | Ried 32%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Ried 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 70% | Ried 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 33% | Ried 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG WSG Wattens 1.09 / Ried 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.806 / def 1.070 | Ried attack 0.584 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.659 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ried xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Ried kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
WSG Wattens 2 - 0 Ried.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Ried part of?
WSG Wattens vs Ried is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Ried a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both WSG Wattens and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
Record (3 meetings): WSG Wattens 3W | Draws 0 | Ried 0W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Ried (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.58x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
35%
2.85
33%
3.06
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.13
1.04
Ried xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.04 for Ried, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 19L across 47 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.06 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 3W 7D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Ried have gone 11W 17D 19L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Ried away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.39 PPG; Ried away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 5, Ried have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Ried?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 56%, Ried 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (WSG Wattens) and 35% (Ried).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 35% of games; Ried in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Ried?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 52% of Ried's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 35% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Ried tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ried in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Ried 2-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.09 xG and Ried 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ried landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Ried attack 0.58 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 33% | Ried 32%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 70%, Ried 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.30 PPG, Ried 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.