WSG Wattens 4-2 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 44%, yet in-form Ried provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Ried meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 5D 3L from 8 games (0.62 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 0W 3D 1L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried (all games): 3W 3D 2L across 8 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ried are the stronger side — 0.88 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.62). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Ried in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 75% and Ried 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 50% | Ried 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.54 xG and Ried 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.800 / defence 1.210 | Ried attack 0.711 / defence 1.642. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.271. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.642 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 WSG Wattens games / 8 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 44% | Draw 33% | Ried 23%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Ried 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 75% | Ried 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 44% | Draw 33% | Ried 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG WSG Wattens 1.54 / Ried 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.800 / def 1.210 | Ried attack 0.711 / def 1.642 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ried xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Ried kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
WSG Wattens 4 - 2 Ried.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Ried part of?
WSG Wattens vs Ried is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 44% chance of winning, Ried a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both WSG Wattens and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 0W-5D-3L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Ried (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.71x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.06
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.63
1.09
Ried xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.09 for Ried, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 0W 5D 3L from 8 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 2L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ried by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.38 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Ried in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Ried have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Ried away?
WSG Wattens's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.75 PPG; Ried away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 5, Ried have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Ried?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for WSG Wattens, 75% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (WSG Wattens) and 50% (Ried).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of WSG Wattens's games and 75% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 50% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Ried tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Ried 4-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.54 xG and Ried 1.09 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ried outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Ried attack 0.71 / defence 1.64, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 44% | Draw 33% | Ried 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 50%, Ried 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.