WSG Wattens 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Ried meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 May 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.
Ried (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for WSG Wattens, 0.80 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, WSG Wattens are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both WSG Wattens and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 53% versus Ried 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 63% | Ried 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.33 xG and Ried 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.935 / defence 1.212 | Ried attack 0.867 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.338. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 26% | Ried 39%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Ried 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 40% | Ried 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 26% | Ried 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG WSG Wattens 1.33 / Ried 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.935 / def 1.212 | Ried attack 0.867 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Ried (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Ried xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Ried kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Ried kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Ried part of?
WSG Wattens vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Ried a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both WSG Wattens and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
Record (5 meetings): WSG Wattens 4W | Draws 1 | Ried 0W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.87x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.91
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.74
1.41
Ried xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.41 for Ried, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 12W 23D 25L across 60 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.98 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 9D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Current Season
Ried
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Ried in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Ried have gone 12W 23D 25L in their last 60 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Ried away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.30 PPG; Ried away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 5, Ried have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Ried?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 53%, Ried 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (WSG Wattens) and 37% (Ried).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Ried?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 53% of Ried's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 37% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Ried tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ried in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 7, as WSG Wattens and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.33 xG and Ried 1.41 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 26% | Ried 39%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 63%, Ried 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.22 PPG, Ried 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.