WSG Wattens 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 40%, yet in-form WSG Wattens provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Rapid Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, WSG Wattens have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 53% and Rapid Vienna 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 62% | Rapid Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.30 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.974 / defence 1.240 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.934 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.239. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 34% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form WSG Wattens (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 40% | Rapid Vienna 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 34% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG WSG Wattens 1.30 / Rapid Vienna 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.974 / def 1.240 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.934 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Rapid Vienna xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
WSG Wattens 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 34% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.97) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.91
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.74
1.44
Rapid Vienna xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.44 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 11W 9D 12L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 10W 11D 11L from 32 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.31 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 7D 6L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.50 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Rapid Vienna away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.50 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
7
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 0, Rapid Vienna have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 56%, Rapid Vienna at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (WSG Wattens) and 56% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of WSG Wattens's games and 88% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of WSG Wattens's matches and 56% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out WSG Wattens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat WSG Wattens 1-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.30 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.44 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 34% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 40%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 62%, Rapid Vienna 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.31 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.