Wolfsberger AC 1-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC host WSG Wattens at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 2W 2D 6L at Lavanttal Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. WSG Wattens's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 71% and WSG Wattens 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 75% | WSG Wattens 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.57 xG and WSG Wattens 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.062 / defence 1.226 | WSG Wattens attack 1.216 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.520. WSG Wattens have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Wolfsberger AC games / 38 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 27% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 53%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.70 | Draw 5.00 | WSG Wattens 1.89. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 100% | WSG Wattens 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 27% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.57 / WSG Wattens 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.062 / def 1.226 | WSG Wattens attack 1.216 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
2.27
WSG Wattens xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 27% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 53% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.06x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
27%
3.76
20%
4.99
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.84
2.27
WSG Wattens xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
10%
9.64
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
3%
36.28
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 2.27 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 19W 7D 22L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 20L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.33 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 9W 3D 12L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 9W 2D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.52 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 19W 7D 22L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or WSG Wattens away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.25 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 75%, WSG Wattens at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wolfsberger AC and 75% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 58% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 75% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.57 xG and WSG Wattens 2.27 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against WSG Wattens attack 1.22 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 27% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 53%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 75%, WSG Wattens 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.33 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.