Wolfsberger AC 1-3 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wolfsberger AC (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wolfsberger AC face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC host WSG Wattens at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lavanttal Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for WSG Wattens, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 51% versus WSG Wattens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 51% | WSG Wattens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 2.29 xG and WSG Wattens 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.238 / defence 1.068 | WSG Wattens attack 0.895 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.191. Data: 29 Wolfsberger AC games / 29 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 63% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 17%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | WSG Wattens 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 63% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Wolfsberger AC 2.29 / WSG Wattens 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.238 / def 1.068 | WSG Wattens attack 0.895 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
WSG Wattens xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 3 WSG Wattens.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 63% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Record (4 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.24x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
63%
1.60
20%
4.92
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.42
1.14
WSG Wattens xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
10%
9.84
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
57.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.14 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 15W 11D 13L from 39 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 24L across 39 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolfsberger AC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 4W 2D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.85 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 8W 7D 24L in their last 39 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or WSG Wattens away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.37 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 63%, WSG Wattens 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Wolfsberger AC) and 53% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 26% of games; WSG Wattens in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 47% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 53% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 1-3 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 2.29 xG and WSG Wattens 1.14 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.24 / defence 1.07 against WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 63% | Draw 20% | WSG Wattens 17%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a WSG Wattens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 51%, WSG Wattens 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.