Wolfsberger AC 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Bundesliga matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.83 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Bundesliga appearances (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 1W 2D 3L from 6 outings — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.83) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 67% and TSV Hartberg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 83% | TSV Hartberg 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.68 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.127 / defence 1.334 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.056 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.190. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Wolfsberger AC games / 6 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 36% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 36%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 67% | TSV Hartberg 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 36% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.68 / TSV Hartberg 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.127 / def 1.334 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.056 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
TSV Hartberg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 36% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.49
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.68
TSV Hartberg xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.68 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolfsberger AC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — TSV Hartberg travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.33 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 67%, TSV Hartberg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wolfsberger AC and 33% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 33% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 1-3 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.68 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.13 / defence 1.33 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 36% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 36%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 83%, TSV Hartberg 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with TSV Hartberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.