Wolfsberger AC 2-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wolfsberger AC at 1.30 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 1, TSV Hartberg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 67% and TSV Hartberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 74% | TSV Hartberg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.866 / defence 1.221 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.745 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 80% | TSV Hartberg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.28 / TSV Hartberg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.866 / def 1.221 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.745 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
TSV Hartberg xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 38% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
Record (2 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.70
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.22
TSV Hartberg xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.22 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 22W 8D 27L from 57 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 28L across 57 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.30 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 10W 3D 15L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.23 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 8D 27L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 16D 28L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.18 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 71%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Wolfsberger AC and 54% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.74 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 74%, TSV Hartberg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.